The vast majority of hydrogen (96%) is generated from fossil fuels, particularly from steam methane reforming (SMR) of natural gas but also from coal gasification. 4 The Hydrogen Council, a group established in 2017 by British Petroleum, Shell, and other oil and gas majors, has called for heating all homes with hydrogen in the future.

3 In Europe, a recent report from Gas for Climate, an association of natural gas pipeline companies, envisions large scale use of hydrogen in the future for heating and electricity generation. 2 Utilities are also exploring the use of hydrogen, again blended with natural gas, to power existing electric generating facilities. 2 In this view, hydrogen is to be used not only for hard to decarbonize sectors of the economy such as long-distance transportation by trucks and airplanes but also for heating and cooking, with hydrogen blended with natural gas and distributed to homes and business through existing pipeline systems. 1 However, hydrogen is increasingly being promoted as a way to address climate change, as indicated by a recent article in the New York Times. Currently, hydrogen is used mostly by industry during oil-refining and synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production, and little is used for energy because it is expensive relative to fossil fuels. Hydrogen is widely viewed as an important fuel for a future energy transition. Even if true though, the use of blue hydrogen appears difficult to justify on climate grounds. Our analysis assumes that captured carbon dioxide can be stored indefinitely, an optimistic and unproven assumption. In a sensitivity analysis in which the methane emission rate from natural gas is reduced to a low value of 1.54%, greenhouse gas emissions from blue hydrogen are still greater than from simply burning natural gas, and are only 18%-25% less than for gray hydrogen. Perhaps surprisingly, the greenhouse gas footprint of blue hydrogen is more than 20% greater than burning natural gas or coal for heat and some 60% greater than burning diesel oil for heat, again with our default assumptions. While carbon dioxide emissions are lower, fugitive methane emissions for blue hydrogen are higher than for gray hydrogen because of an increased use of natural gas to power the carbon capture. For our default assumptions (3.5% emission rate of methane from natural gas and a 20-year global warming potential), total carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for blue hydrogen are only 9%-12% less than for gray hydrogen.

Far from being low carbon, greenhouse gas emissions from the production of blue hydrogen are quite high, particularly due to the release of fugitive methane. We undertake the first effort in a peer-reviewed paper to examine the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of blue hydrogen accounting for emissions of both carbon dioxide and unburned fugitive methane. Increasingly, many propose using carbon capture and storage to reduce these emissions, producing so-called вЂњblue hydrogen,вЂќ frequently promoted as low emissions. Currently, most hydrogen is produced by steam reforming of methane in natural gas (вЂњgray hydrogenвЂќ), with high carbon dioxide emissions. Hydrogen is often viewed as an important energy carrier in a future decarbonized world.

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